The Prognostic Model Of 12-Month Mortality in Patients Discharged from The Hospital After Pulmonary Embolism
https://doi.org/10.20514/2226-6704-2026-16-3-204-213
EDN: JORIAV
Abstract
Objective. To identify clinical, laboratory and instrumental predictors of 12-month mortality in patients after PE and to develop a prognostic model. Material and methods. This retrospective study included 150 patients discharged after an episode of PE (2021–2024). The diagnosis was confirmed predominantly by CT pulmonary angiography. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and echocardiographic parameters were assessed. The primary endpoint was death within 12 months after PE (excluding in-hospital and early mortality within 30 days). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to identify independent predictors. Model discrimination was evaluated using the AUC, and calibration using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test and a calibration plot; internal validation was performed by bootstrap resampling. Results. During follow-up, 20 patients (13.3 %) died. Three independent predictors of 12-month mortality were included in the multivariable model: hemoglobin level, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). The model demonstrated high discriminatory ability (AUC 0.906; 95 % CI 0.852–0.960; p <0.001) and good calibration (χ²=4.009; p=0.856). At the probability threshold p=0.08, sensitivity of the model was 100 % and specificity 69.2 %. The Mezo score showed higher AUC values compared with sPESI, ICOPER, GPS and the Yamaki scores. Conclusion. The Mezo score, based on hemoglobin level, eGFR and LVEF, provides high accuracy in predicting 12-month mortality in patients after PE and, after external validation, may be used for early risk stratification.
About the Authors
H. K. D. Musa
Department of Hospital Therapy with courses of endocrinology, hematology and clinical laboratory diagnostic Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba, Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation; Voskresensk Hospital, Ministry of Health of the Moscow Region
Russian Federation
Competing Interests:
Russian Federation
Hamza K.D. Musa — PhD student
Moscow
Voskresensk
Competing Interests:
The authors declare that this work, its topic, subject matter, and content do not affect any competing interests.
G. A. Selivanov
Department of Hospital Therapy with courses of endocrinology, hematology and clinical laboratory diagnostic Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba, Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Competing Interests:
Russian Federation
Gleb A. Selivanov — 5th year Student of the Medical Institute
Moscow
Competing Interests:
The authors declare that this work, its topic, subject matter, and content do not affect any competing interests.
E. A. Iftode
Kolomna Hospital, Ministry of Health of the Moscow Region
Russian Federation
Competing Interests:
Russian Federation
Ekaterina A. Iftode — General practitioner, Outpatient Clinic No. 2
Kolomna
Kolomna, Moscow Region
Competing Interests:
The authors declare that this work, its topic, subject matter, and content do not affect any competing interests.
V. A. Kokorin
Department of Hospital Therapy with courses of endocrinology, hematology and clinical laboratory diagnostic Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba, Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation; Department of Hospital Therapy named after academician P.E. Lukomsky of Clinical Medicine Institute, Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation (Pirogov University)
Russian Federation
Competing Interests:
Russian Federation
Valentin A. Kokorin — MD, PhD, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Hospital Therapy with courses in Endocrinology, Hematology and Clinical and Laboratory Diagnostics, Medical Institute, RUDN University n. a. P. Lumumba of the MSHE of Russia, Moscow; Professor, Department of Hospital Therapy n. a. Academician P.E. Lukomsky, Institute of Clinical Medicine, N.I. Pirogov RNRMU of the MOH of Russia (Pirogov University)
Moscow
Competing Interests:
The authors declare that this work, its topic, subject matter, and content do not affect any competing interests.
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Review
For citations:
Musa H.K., Selivanov G.A., Iftode E.A., Kokorin V.A. The Prognostic Model Of 12-Month Mortality in Patients Discharged from The Hospital After Pulmonary Embolism. The Russian Archives of Internal Medicine. 2026;16(3):204-213. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.20514/2226-6704-2026-16-3-204-213. EDN: JORIAV
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